Archive for December, 2010

Start the new year off right…with GOALS!

December 28th, 2010

“Take the time to line up the Energy first, and action becomes the easy part. If you don’t take the time to line up the Energy, if you don’t see, feel, taste and touch what you’re longing for, not enough action in the world will make any difference. This pretty much covers everything in life including sales!” Shirleen Von Hoffmann

Your Blueprint for success…it doesn’t happen by accident.
Let’s talk about a plan, a blueprint for success. How many of you have a plan? How do you get to a location without a map? What is a map? In essence it is the written word. You can’t build a home without a blueprint? How do achieve a dream without a vision? You have a plan, an agenda, a way to a means, a way to achieve your dream. “EDGE Agents” are top producers and top producers have goals and a plan to achieve those goals.

What are some of the things you need in your Blueprint for success? In a blueprint of a home, you have at least three major components, a floorplan, an elevation and square footage. We are giving you seven goal setting steps as major components in your blueprint for success.

Take some time to write down what your goals are as well as the income you would like to make for the year. What is the difference between a dream and a goal? The written word. Write out a blueprint of the things you will need to do to achieve those goals.
Goal setting is more than simply scribbling down some ideas on a piece of paper. Our goals need to be complete and focused, much like a blueprint.
If you follow the 7 goal setting steps, you will be well on your way to building the blueprint to achieve success.

1. Make sure your goals are something you really want.
Not just something that sounds good. When setting goals it is very important to remember that your goals must be consistent with your values.

2. A goal can not contradict any of your other goals.
For example, you can’t buy a $750,000 house if your income goal is only $50,000 per year. This is called non-integrated thinking and will sabotage all of the hard work you put into your goals. Non-integrated thinking can also hamper your everyday thoughts as well. We should continually strive to eliminate contradictory ideas from our thinking.

3. Develop goals in the 6 areas of life:
Family and Home Financial and Career
Spiritual and Ethical Physical and Health
Social and Cultural Mental and Educational
Setting goals in each area of life will ensure a more balanced life as you begin to examine and change the fundamentals of everyday living. Setting goals in each area of life also helps in eliminating the non-integrated thinking we talked about in the 2nd step.

4. Write your goal in the positive instead of the negative.
Part of the reason why we write down and examine our goals is to create a set of instructions for our subconscious mind to carry out. Your subconscious mind is a very efficient tool, it cannot determine right from wrong and it does not judge. It’s only function is to carry out its instructions. The more positive instructions you give it, the more positive results you will get.
Thinking positively in everyday life will also help in your growth as a human being. Don’t limit it to goal setting.

5. Write your goal out in complete detail.
Instead of writing “A new home,” write “A 4,000 square foot contemporary with 4 bedrooms and 3 baths and a view of the mountain on 20 acres of land.
Once again we are giving the subconscious mind a detailed set of instructions to work on. The more information you give it, the more clear the final outcome becomes. The more precise the outcome, the more efficient the subconscious mind can become.
Can you close your eyes and visualize the home I described above? Walk around the house. Stand on the porch off the master bedroom and see the fog lifting off the mountain. Look down at the garden full of tomatoes, green beans and cucumbers. And off to the right is the other garden full of a mums, carnations and roses. Can you see it? So can your subconscious mind.

6. By all means, make sure your goal is high enough.
Shoot for the moon; if you miss you’ll still be in the stars. Do make your goals achievable.

7. This is the most important, write down your goals.
Writing down your goals creates the blueprint to your success. Although just the act of writing them down can set the process in motion, it is also extremely important to review your goals frequently. Remember, the more focused you are on your goals the more likely you are to accomplish them.
Sometimes we realize we have to revise a goal as circumstances and other goals change. If you need to change a goal do not consider it a failure, consider it a victory as you had the insight to realize something was different.

8. Visualize your Goals
Take some time to relax and focus on “seeing” your goals come to fruition in your mind’s eye. Without the initial vision of what you are trying to achieve, action steps are inconsequential. All the action steps in the world will not make a goal happen than you cannot vision first. You must see it, know it and believe it to be true first. Visualizing what you want to obtain, desire or achieve is the most powerful thing you can do to achieve your goals. Make sure you see it, smell it, taste it, touch it, feel it and you will create it.

9. Prepare the actions steps to achieve those goals
After you have written down your goals figure out what steps you need to do in your life to make those goals a reality. Write them down in detail.
For instance if you say you want to get a promotion at work to General Manager by March, then you will need to write the action steps it will take to align that goal with your reality.

10. Calendar those action steps.
Get out a calendar and insert those action steps weekly so that you make time in your life for them. Treat your action step appointments as though they were a very important appointment; because they are. Don’t cancel them unless you can reschedule them in the same week. Remember these appointments are honoring your word; the promise you have made to your self to achieve your goals.

Home prices expected to rise in 40% of major metros in 2011

December 22nd, 2010

Veros « HousingWire

San Diego should see home prices rise 3.5% next year, but prices in Florida and Nevada, two states where the foreclosure crisis is especially acute, will drop 6% to 7%, according to a real estate market forecast.

While 40% of major metros are expected to see appreciation in home prices, most of that is expected to be fairly mild.

The forecast comes from Santa Ana, Calif.-based Veros Real Estate Solutions, a technology firm serving the financial services industry.

The forecast looks at the median price tier in metros of 500,000 or more. For December 2010 through December 2011, select markets in the U.S. can expect to witness 2.5% to 3.5% appreciation on home values, including Washington state’s tri-city area.

click here to read entire article

Home construction up after 2 months of declines

December 16th, 2010

Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer, On Thursday December 16, 2010, 9:31 am EST

WASHINGTON (AP) — Home construction nudged up in November after two months of declines.

Builders broke ground last month on a seasonally adjusted 555,000 units, a 3.9 percent rise from October, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Even with the gain, housing starts are just 16 percent above the 477,000 unit pace from April 2009 — the lowest point on records dating back to 1959.

And they are down 76 percent from their peak in January 2006, and 45 percent below the 1 million annual rate that analysts say is consistent with a healthy housing market.

All the activity last month came from building single-family homes. They increased to a pace of 465,000 units, a 6.9 percent rise from October. Apartment construction fell 9.1 percent to a unit pace of 90,000.

Housing permits, a barometer of future demand, fell 4 percent to an annualized rate of 530,000, reflecting weakness in apartment construction. It marked the lowest level in permits since April 2009.

More than a year after the recession ended, the housing market is struggling.

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday cited that as a reason it decided to stick with a $600 billion Treasury bond-buying program intended to bolster the economy.

Americans are trying to repair personal finances, battered by the recession. So they aren’t in a rush to make big-ticket financial commitments and buy homes. Plus loans are still hard to come by. A wave of home foreclosures is keeping home prices down. That’s good for would-be buyers, but not for builders.

The weak housing market is one of the negative forces confronting a slowly improving economy. So is high unemployment, now at 9.8 percent.

Each new home built creates, on average, the equivalent of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in taxes, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

U.S. homebuilders remain uneasy about the housing market’s prospects in the months ahead, discouraged by weak job growth and millions of foreclosures, the association says. Its monthly reading of builders’ sentiment remained unchanged in December at 16.

Builders are anticipating fewer sales in December than most years, says NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, mostly because of competition from sharply discounted foreclosed homes, tighter lending standards and poor overall job growth. December is traditionally one of the slowest times for sales.

With Prices Stabilizing, Home Builders’ Operational Plans Look Good to Go

December 15th, 2010

J.P. Morgan’s Rehaut-courtesy of Big Builder Online

J.P. Morgan home building and building products company analyst Michael Rehaut asserts his outlook for 2011 breaks ranks with the consensus of his brethren when he writes, “we believe our outlook for stable to modestly improving trends, as well as for home prices to be flat to down only 3% in 2011, is materially more positive than our view of the current buyside consensus, which we believe expects home prices to decline at least another 5-10%, resulting in a resurgence in land-related charges, margin compression, and book value erosion.”

The pivot point of Rehaut’s analysis–and the unknowns for anyone in the unenviable position of having to produce an economic “outlook” for housing in 2011–is prices. The linkage of prices to demand tangibles such as job formation, consumer spending, and small business expansion, as well as to supply tangibles such as current absolute vacancies, new-home inventory, and resale months’ supply is complex enough in a good year to model out a forecast. This year, intangibles weigh heavily. Prices could swing significantly based on relative contagion of stragegic default, the Animal Spirits of “recession fatigue,” the potential innovation–after a stumbling process of elimination–of housing finance policy that actually stems the tide of homeowner distress, etc.
Rehaut’s betting that the operational drivers in home building pre-indicate a technical “comfort zone” on prices–with a fall on a national basis of 3% or less.
Here’s his sum-up of the way things look to him in early December 2010 for the year ahead. Give him credit for bravery in his conviction.

Following a 2010 that featured a striking amount of volatility due to the expiration of the federal housing tax credit, but overall reinforced our view when we upgraded the sector to positive in September 2009 that the recovery would emerge slowly and over the next 24 months, we believe 2011 will mark stabilization and modest improvement in the housing market. Critically, however, we believe our outlook for stable to modestly improving trends, as well as for home prices to be flat to down only 3% in 2011, is materially more positive than our view of the current buyside consensus, which we believe expects home prices to decline at least another 5-10%, resulting in a resurgence in land-related charges, margin compression, and book value erosion. By contrast, we believe land-related charges should continue to be minimal in 2011, while margins should expand modestly and book values should largely hold. Moreover, we estimate order growth to resume and more builders to generate positive Operating EPS in the upcoming year. Trading at 1.05x current P/B (ex-adj. FAS 109, ex-NVR), at the low end of their historical range, we believe the stocks fully reflect the more pessimistic buyside consensus. Hence, we view the sector as representing a compelling risk/reward dynamic, as we expect improving fundamentals in 2011 to result in investors anticipating a return to normalized EPS and book value growth, which in turn should drive P/B multiple expansion over the next 12 months. Using an average targeted 10% discount to the group’s 10-year P/B multiples against our 2011-end book value estimates, we slightly adjust our price targets, which now represent an average 28% return potential (previously 31%). Lastly, we round out our coverage universe by initiating on NVR (OW) and MTH (N), the former of which we add to our favored OW-rated names of LEN, KBH, and TOL.


Economists Predict Growth in 2011

December 14th, 2010

Courtesy of Wall Street Journal by Phil Izzo
Economists have grown more optimistic about the outlook for U.S. growth next year, predicting the expansion will accelerate as 2011 progresses, according to the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.

The 55 respondents, not all of whom answer every question, raised their growth projections for gross domestic product for nearly every period, including the current quarter. On average, the economists now predict GDP will grow 2.6% in the current quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up from the 2.4% growth they projected in last month’s survey. The economy grew 2.5% in the third quarter.
The economists now see stronger expansion in the first half of 2011, with growth picking up speed as the year progresses. For the year, they expect GDP will rise 3%. Meanwhile, they have reduced the odds of a double-dip recession to 15%, the lowest average forecast of the year, from 22% in September survey.

The majority of the respondents also say that there is a better chance the economy in 2011 will outperform their forecasts than that it will underperform. Thirty-five economists said the risks to their forecasts are more to the upside; 14 said the risk was to the downside.
Data on trade, retail sales, consumer sentiment and manufacturing have been looking better. Economists also were generally encouraged by news from Washington on a tax-cut compromise that included an unexpected temporary reduction in payroll taxes in addition an extension of the Bush-era tax cuts. The survey was conducted from Dec. 3-8, so not all of the forecasts take the tentative tax deal into account. Strong data on exports Friday also caused some economists to push up forecasts. Macroeconomic Advisers, for example, raised their fourth-quarter GDP tracking forecast by 0.3 percentage point to 2.3%
About the Survey
The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well their forecasts have fared. For prior installments of the surveys, see:
“We have been anticipating the renewal of Bush tax cuts but not the possibility of payroll tax cuts,” said Maury Harris of UBS. The added tax cut is expected to provide further stimulus to the economy and boost growth and jobs.

Also adding fuel to the recovery is the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program, though the economists said the effect may not be large. A Boston Fed study estimates that through 2012 the bond purchases will result in 700,000 additional jobs. Forty-two of 52 respondents called that estimate too optimistic.

To be sure, despite the rosier outlook there are still problems that could hold growth back. A disappointing November employment report showed a small 39,000 increase in jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked up for the first time in three months to 9.8%. Though more than 4-in-5 economists don’t see the unemployment rate increasing from here, the pace of job growth still is expected only to bring the jobless rate down slowly. On average, the economists still expect the unemployment rate to sit at 9% at the end of next year, with the economy adding around 160,000 jobs a month.

Meanwhile, the housing market has shown some signs of stabilization but sales continue to be under stress and construction remains muted. The economists expect continued moribund housing starts in the new year, while home prices are seen flat.
At the same time, concerns remain about turmoil in Europe’s economy, with the economists on average putting about 1-in-3 odds of a country exiting the euro zone in the next three years.

Holiday Home Sales – Feast or Famine?

December 9th, 2010

By Shirleen Von Hoffmann President and Sales Coach for HomeBuilders AdvantEdge Copyright 2010

“Call me after the holidays”, can really get a sales persons blood pressure up. Every year at this time, salespeople get frustrated with clients who give this line as a reason to stall because they are too busy with Holiday mania.

I hear it all the time from Sales People, that the Holidays are the worst time for Sales. First of all, I say, not true. Holidays are the busiest times for Sales People if you are thinking quicker than the average bear. Do you ever notice how Top Producers are busy no matter what? That’s because they are always thinking of every minute of their day and they out think their client.

Call me after the holidays is what people say when they are too busy to deal with you right at the moment. Therefore, you need to give them a compelling reasons why NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY.
Find a reason to create urgency about why, if they buy now, they will get the deal of a lifetime compared to after the Holidays.

Here are a few examples…

“It’s our year end; we are running our annual year end special that will end after the Holidays. We run one every year but with the market picking up I doubt pricing will ever be this low again!”

“We are including $_________ in our homes at no cost as our Holiday bonus. I can tell you the inventory I have will not be here because of the interest I am seeing, I have already scheduled four appointments for next week.”

“These homes will not be here after the Holidays because of the aggressive year end pricing we have in place. Trust me the phone has been ringing off the hook. So I thought I better give you a call as well because I know you were truly interested.”

“My Builder is running a special on the home you love and I have two other couples looking at it this weekend, I wanted to give you a heads up.”

The bottom line is if you think, “Call me after the holidays” is going to get in your way, then it will. You need to be more creative than that and find a way to get their attention, even during the Holidays. And only bring one thought to work with you…”The holidays are my busiest time of year and the time when I make the most sales.”

So Happy holidays and Happy Sales

PS: If you want more coaching on this subject, Call me after the Holidays! .

Bringing in the New Year!

December 9th, 2010

“I’m not ever going to get it done because I’m an eternally growing and I’m doing great where I am. I’m so eager about what’s coming in the new year.”

That’s the kind of statement that keeps you feeling always excited, stable and secure, keeps you feeling in love with life. All day, every day, count your blessings! All day, every day, make your lists of things you appreciate. And as you pay attention what is working in your life, then more pleasing things on all subjects will flow to you

Footer Image